Kondratieff Wave « AstroCycle research

By: Astrocycle  09-12-2011

Kondratieff Wave « AstroCycle research

Kondratieff’s work

Many have studied economic cycles and tried to fit them into a single secular wave, with Kondratieff’s work below the best known.

The Kondratieff Wave


Liquidity induced Bubble Watch

After the roaring Twenties took debt to 270% of GDP in an unsustainable way, the collapse of this debt led to the great Depression, WWII, and a distinct distrust of paper assets and debt. Debt levels then returned to a more manageable 150% of GDP before rising again, mostly from the growth of mortgages as the real estate and commodities bubble took hold in the late 1970′s. When these real asset bubbles collapsed, much of the funds moved to the Nikkei forming another bubble and pushing the Yen sharply higher in the late 1980′s. Once the Japanese bubble collapsed, funds flowed back to US and European markets fueling their rise in the late 1990′s, and confirmed by the rising US Dollar. The ensuing US market collapse of 2000 sent the funds back into real assets like Commodities and Real Estate, but this time embracing even more debt and leverage to 350% of GDP. We have phenomenal growth of credit in absolute terms too, with US Treasuries and total credit both expanded 9-10 times since the first bubble formed 27 years ago. Since we are already seeing the first flight away from risky paper, history is likely to repeat itself, and 60% of this debt will be eventually wiped out mostly worthless in the next 5 to 15 years.

Low Rates until the Depression ended

Probable bigger Crash into the 2019 cycle low


Other products and services from Astrocycle

09-12-2011

Octaves in Time « AstroCycle research

The waveform typically shows weakness near the first and second third of the seasonal 1 year chart, with a similar pattern also visible in the first and second third of the Decade, Century charts and even a Millenium timeline. This also yields the familiar Elliott Wave pattern of three drives up broken by two periods of weakness across all time frames as Elliott discovered and Prechter popularized.


09-12-2011

Prime Numbers « AstroCycle research

By definition, only Prime Number frequencies are unique, and all others are Harnonic resonance at lower or higher Octaves of the Prime frequencies or interactions with other frequencies. The three year harmonics shows up mostly in Interest Rates sensitive series, with the 2nd harmonic of 6 year very visible, and the 10th harmonic 60 year cycle very important as well.


09-12-2011

Study of Cycles « AstroCycle research

The discovery and manipulation of this spectrum has been the source of the greatest gifts to mankind, from the humble beginnings of language and music, to the benefits of Radio, Laser, X-rays, Computers and Microwave communications and cooking.


09-12-2011

Articles « AstroCycle research

The US is facing Debt Deflation just like Japan, and unlike BCA Research which believes the difference between Corporate Debt, and Consumer Debt will yield a different outcome we believe the net result will be similar. I doubt very much China and other creditor nations will continue to support the USA for another 10-20 years of Debt Deflation.


09-12-2011

Solar Volatility « AstroCycle research

One holds that because of the position of the earth, the sun, the planets, they are balanced one with another in some manner, some form; yet that they have nothing to do with man’s life or the expanse of life, or the emotions of the physical being in the earth.


09-12-2011

Economic Waves « AstroCycle research

There is evidence of a 150 year cycle, a likely cycle since it would be an harmonic resonance of the 309.6 year Princeton model. The Commodities series shows the secular trends between price inflation and deflation have accelerated in the last century. Supporting this low rates forecast is the Federal Debt now over 8.8 trillion, and Household Debt Service at 20 year highs.


09-12-2011

Money Dynamics « AstroCycle research

The Federal Reserve was enacted to control the growth of the Money Supply through short term Interest Rates, but since it is composed of Bankers who profit from the expansion, they can be in conflict of interest. Starting in 1925 Debt grew quickly while the Economy had most likely started contracting in 1920 as shown by the drop in Rates before the rise in Debt and Money Supply in 1925.